Script - WUDC 2011 GF : THW invade Zimbabwe PM
WUDC 2011 GF : THW invade Zimbabwe
PM: Victor Finkel (Monash A)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lc_WaOonIkY
Ladies and gentleman, I’ve never thought I would be standing here for Fiona’s and my collective 3rd world’s grand final again from opening government. But this time, I’m genuinely proud to support the proposal that we bring before the house.
Robert Mugabe has systematically oppressed the people of Zimbabwe for 9 years or a decade. Right now, five million people and increasing everyday are living behind the poverty line. Not because Zimbabwe is too poor to do anything about it, but because Robert Mugabe’s policies have actively destroyed the country. The Cholera epidemic we saw being fixed, is again resurgent and spreading within Zimbabwe. And there is clear and active lack of respect for the will of the people within Zimbabwe. Attacks on MDC and Morgan Tsvangirai have resumed. To the point where the leader of opposition Movement for Democratic Change Morgan Tsvangirai has himself called for the African Union(AU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to send in armed peacekeepers to restore democratic rule in Zimbabwe. We think this is a brilliant idea.
The aim of the government bench is to remove Robert Mugabe from power and restore Zimbabwean democracy. We believe that the international and particularly African community has sat on the sidelines for too long. We believe this policy will bring about positive change both for the people in Zimbabwe and for African democracy across the continent.
Our model is clear. We think in much the same way the ECOWAS just issued a threat to Cote d'ivoire that is backed up with military intervention in a very short period of time, we believe that SADC and the African Union should issue Robert Mugabe and alternate?. We have one month to order. Similar appropriate time to accept the amnesty in South Africa beyond which time, this SADC and AU would be sending ground and air forces supported by the technology of the West in the form of United Nations to bring about an end to his dictatorial rule. We would go in and destroy systematically the hardened military targets with ? and 3000 troops in Zimbabwe will stand no mechanism and no real opposition to the combined forces of SADC, the AU and United Nations. We believe this should be folded up with a massive international aid package and the presence of peacekeepers in the nation until free and fair elections can be held and transition to a stable society can be guaranteed. We expect this would be long term. We expect peacekeepers would be there for five to ten years. In much the same way the ECOWAS did it in Liberia and Sierra Leone successfully.
Why we think it’s necessary to act?
Because we think that sovereignty is not an absolute. And the government of Robert Mugabe has given up any claim that it had to be a sovereign leader of its nation.
We think that sovereignty is historical artifact. That is just said, to help governments work in international arena, and more importantly to help governments recognize the will of their people. We think Robert Mugabe has broken the criterion that are necessary for us to respect the sovereignty.
The first of these is that there is a humanitarian crisis in Zimbabwe that is unresponded to or actively furthered by the government of that nation. Just in the same way we accept there is a principle to act in the case of genocide, we think likewise that allowing poverty, famine, and disease to spread and actively putting policies in place to encourage that should be considered just as much as crime against the people in that country.
The second reason is that sovereignty should only be recognized by the international community when the government has a claim to represent the will of the people. We don’t think this actually means perfect democracy. We are more than happy to say that in many cases governments like China do a very good job of representing the will for the economic development and of a vast majority of the people. But Zimbabwe, this is clearly not the case.
In the most recent poll that was conducted, only 18% said they would support Robert Mugabe. 32% said Tsvangirai, and 40% was so terrorized by Robert Mugabe’s forces that they didn’t comment because that is the degree of fear that is held.
More than this, power sharing has been an absolutely inadmissible failure in Zimbabwe. The solution of the international community tried to restart MDC and Morgan Tsvangirai, to shared power in the peaceful happy nirvana with Robert Mugabe. The result was just that Mugabe has kept power, has kept control of every major ministry from the defence and home affairs and interior ministry and finance. In such way he disclaimed for control of every others.
We think the government is not acting in crisis and does not respect the will of the people.
The third reason why sovereignty can be cut out is because all other methods have been tried and failed. We’ve tried everything. South Africa sent Thabo Mbeki to negotiate with Robert Mugabe in an attempt to get him to set down. It didn’t work. We put sanctions as a broad sense on Zimbabwe. It didn’t work. And we don’t think that it should be the case that sanctions used because they hurt the people on the ground in Zimbabwe most of all. We think that targeted sanctions on single Zimbabwe ministers have been again tried and failed.(about smart sanction tried and failed)
So why our plan is the one that will work to restore power in Zimbabwe.
The main reason is we believe firstly that amnesty backed up incredible threat is incredibly likely to succeed. The reason that Robert Mugabe didn’t the accept the amnesty in 2000 that Kofi Annan offered to him was because there’s no reason to think that he would be thrust out by force. We change that.
But secondly, this invasion would work. Before I talk about that, sir.
POI: If you basically oppose sanctions because they cause vast damage to innocent poor people, how is launching a ground invasion in anyway justifiable?
This is a very good question but I’ll answer this for you. The answer is that combined forces of South Africa and United Nations are vastly technologically superior to the underfed and unequipped forces of Zimbabwe. This would be a quick and clean military action. This is classic army versus army warfare, which the west and its allies and South Africa is very strong in this regard, know how to do well. The problem you might be thinking about is protracted insurgency post initial things like we got in Iraq. The initial conflict there was clean, not any civilians died. We got stacked in insurgency afterwards. Well, the difference here is the hearts and minds of the Zimbabwean people are on the side of liberating them, than letting them bring false liberation and into greater oppression than ever before. Those poll statistic I gave you before, are indicative.
The other reason why we think we won’t get the same torment conflict is because of the post conflict handling would be much better than Afghanistan or Iraq for a couple of reasons.
First of these is that we hold elections quickly and there is a credible opposition reigning to power, a few times Tsvangirai did have some influence he brought about end to anti-inflation and restore the economy before Mugabe go to World Bank? and have control again.
Secondly, this will bring about total lifted sanctions, and as our policy said, massive economic engagement. The problem is donors don’t want to donate to Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe right now. This will open fright gates to America and EU to rapidly develop the countries and fix it.
Ladies and gentlemen, this is the solution that can work because the armed conflict would be over quickly, and we have a clear credible opposition and post development in an effective way. But more than that, this is something that we have to do for the people in Zimbabwe and people of Africa. Thank you.
(このスピーチの素晴らしいところは、自分たちが満たさないといけないバーデン、およびOppから予想される強い反論を全て組み込んでスピーチを作っているところです。PMで一番勝てるスピーチですね。例として
(1)国家主権をなぜ侵害していいのか？
(2)経済制裁やスマートサンクション、交渉などの他のalternaはダメなのか？
(3)じゃあ仮に軍事介入する正当性があるとして、うまくいくのか？
(4)軍事介入して失敗した例(イラクとアフガニスタン)がちょいちょいあるけど、それと同じじゃないのか？泥沼化したらどうするんだ？
などなどです。だいたい軍事介入の対象になるのはヤバすぎてわろたな国が多いです。今回も、国家主権侵害の正当性はジンバブエの状況を鑑みるとOppはOpposeしてこないでしょうが、どちらかというとOppが強いのは
(1)戦争が泥沼化して、より多くの人が死ぬ
(2)それをやるくらいなら、もっと人が死なないalternaがあるよ
っていう大分practicalに寄ったものです（実際このGFのOOもCOも、practicallyに失敗するというケースを話し、alternaをsupportする姿勢を取っています）。これらのargumentが来ることを踏まえてなぜ紛争が早く終わるか、どうしてalternaがfunctionしないかっていうのをPMから全部練り込んであります。特に軍事介入に関してはイラクとアフガニスタンでアメリカが相当しくってるので、これらとの違いを話すことはとても重要でしょう。
色々と参考にしてほしいスピーチですが、特にalternaを潰すのはどのMotionでも大事な話です。多くのモーションの流れとして
(1)S.Q.のProblem
(2)Necessity
(3)A.P.のSolution
ってありますが、(2)のところで「なぜこのモーションか？」っていう考えの中に「他のAlternaではダメだから」っていうのが絶対にあります。プレパ中にVictorのようにalternaを殲滅する方法を考えておけば、Problemを絶対残すことができるでしょう。
スピーチの完成度を見る感じ、15分でプレパできるものじゃ絶対ないですね笑。ジンバブエの隣国ボツワナでこの年のワールドが行われたことから、おそらくジンバブエをガチガチにリサーチして原稿作ってたんじゃないかと思われるレベルです。軍事介入やそれに類するモーションの基本形はこの中に全て入ってるので、ぜひ参考にしてみてください。
この音源は少し聞き取りづらいので、ちょいちょい間違ってる可能性があるのですが、そこは許してちょ。
超どうでもいい話ですが、2006年まだNAだった時代のGeminiで
THW invade somewhereっていうモーションが出たらしいです。これ一回練習でやったら超楽しそうですよね。普通のモーションに飽きたら使ってみてください。)
